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UNIT III. ECONOMIC SITUATION ON AIR TRANSPORT. MARKETING.MANAGEMENT.

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Text 1. Economic situation on air transport: analysis, planning, forecasting.

Air transport development is related to some general economic indicators, reflecting the most significant aspects of the air transport trends and developments within some time period. Usually attention is focused on the development, make-up and distribution of commercial transport fleet.

Of great importance are also regional distributions of international traffic. There are significant differences between the regions, so they show the different growth rates for passengers, freight and total traffic being achieved by the airlines of the world. Monthly traffic variation is also studied among other valuable information on air traffic as it shows the monthly variations for traffic and the spread between the peak and through months.

The analysis of financial data is based on the available information on statistics embracing many sides of financial activity of airlines. Thus they reflect the level of total expenses, revenues, rates of increase or decline in operating results measured as a percentage of revenues, figures for unit expenses and revenues, all showing the average cost of air transport to the user.

Over the decade the average annual growth rate for the total operating revenues of scheduled airlines was slightly higher than that for their operating expenses (11.3% and 11.1% respectively). Unit cost revenues increased moderately; after reaching their peak value these parameters slowly decreased. Among the individual items of operating cost, general, administrative and other, aircraft fuel and oil were the fastest growing, while maintenance and overhaul, landing and associated airport charges showed the slowest increase.

As it was mentioned before various aspects of the development of air transport are related to general economic indicators. Although air transport was strongly affected by the escalation of fuel prices, the industry continues to operate well compared with many other sectors of the economy. Financial comparisons show that air passenger revenues increased at 11.2% per year, whereas estimated international tourist receipts increased at 9.8%. Revenue earned from the carriage of freight by air increased at 11.5% a year, two percentage points more than the value of manufactured goods exported in the world.

The explanation for this comparatively favourable position of air transport in terms of production and revenue may be found in part in the fact that the price of these services to the user didn't increase as rapidly as per capita income and the price index.

The forecasting and planning of any element of the air transport system will need to reflect the interaction with the other elements of the system, for example, the planning of airline routes and services is affected by the policies of the governments concerning competition and traffic rights, and the planning of facilities at an airport may be affected by plans to provide new direct services to other airports and by the fleet development plans of the airlines servicing the airport.

In the preparation of aviation forecasts and when applying these forecasts, it needs to be recognized that uncertainty concerning the future development in respect of the underlying factors inherently leads to an element of uncertainty in any aviation forecast, irrespective of its scope or time frame.

In order to facilitate the use of the forecast in planning and minimize the financial risks of resulting investment programmes, traffic forecasting should include evaluations of the major factors affecting traffic trends and the impact that alternative developments of these factors can have on traffic. To reflect such evaluation it is common to present the result of a forecasting task in the form of a range of forecasts associated with different assumptions.




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